KN Market View 2024-06-30

#KNMarketView

Government Bonds and Currencies. France and UK elections results. USDBRL reached its highest level since 2021.

Commodities. Natural gas -8.29% traded under pressure for the second week in a row. Steel continued trading under pressure reaching levels not seen since 2017. Cotton -6.95% continued with its negative trend reaching 2020 levels.

Stocks. Market’s reaction to the first US presidential debate.

Crypto. Solana ETF approval.

Regarding economic data, Canadian inflation rate came above market expectations 2.9% vs 2.6% (changing bets on loosening monetary policy), in the US the Case Shiller Home Price Index changed its growing trend for the first time since May 2023, but above consensus 7.2% vs 6.9%. Also in the US, EIA crude oil and gasoline inventories increased unexpectedly with 3.591mn barrels vs -3mn expected and 2,654 barrels vs -2,280 respectively.

Korea business confidence came at its highest since August 2022 at 78 vs 74. Japan retail sales continued with its positive trend beating market expectations 3% vs 2%. In Mexico, trade balance switched to a surplus of USD$1.991bn vs -USD$2.04bn deficit expected. Finally, Brazil's unemployment rate reached its lowest since 2015 at 7.1%.

This week, the focus will be on the US payrolls report and FOMC minutes. ISM manufacturing, services PMI and balance of trade will be released for major economies.

In France, volatility might continue on the results of parliamentary elections, with the far right closer to power than it has ever been in modern times link. In the UK, polls predict a landslide victory for Keir Starmer's Labour Party on July 4, ending the Conservatives' 14-year rule.

The following companies will release their quarterly earnings reports: Sodexo, J Sainsbury, Constellation Brands, AEON .