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KN Market View 2024-07-07

KN Market View 2024-07-07

#KNMarketView

Government Bonds and Currencies. Turkey’s disinflationary stage is now underway. British Pound after election results. USDBRL finally rebounded after trading at its highest level since 2021.

Commodities. Metals and Soft Commodities outperformed the broader market.

Stocks. Japan's rally leads to record high, ending a lost decade.

Crypto. Germany’s Bitcoin liquidation continues.

Weekly Paper Picks. Forecasting realized volatility: Does anything beat linear models?

Regarding economic data, the US unemployment rate came above market expectations 4.1% vs 4% (highest level since November). Industrial production in France shrank 2.1% MoM, the biggest drop since October 2022. The Caixin China General Services PMI declined to 51.2 to its softest pace since last October, as new orders and export order growth eased.

Crude oil inventories in the US fell by 12.157mn barrels compared with market expectations of a 0.9mn decrease.

This week, the focus will be on the US CPI, PPI and Michigan consumer confidence report. Elsewhere, interest rate decisions will be announced in New Zealand, South Korea, and Malaysia, accompanied by inflation data releases in Mexico, China, Brazil, India, and Russia link.

“French citizens are voting in an election that could result in the country’s first far-right government since World War II — or end in political deadlock just ahead of the Summer Olympics here. The populist, anti-immigration National Rally party is hoping to expand its lead in this second-round vote, claim a majority in the National Assembly and insert 28-year-old leader Jordan Bardella as prime minister. A left-wing party alliance and candidates from President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist movement are seeking to block them. All sides say the identity and values of France are at stake” link.

The following companies will release their quarterly earnings reports: Formosa Plastic, PepsiCo, Tata Consultancy, Progressive, Fast Retailing, Delta Air Lines, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Hcl Tech, Bank Of New York Mellon, Fastenal and Ericsson.

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