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Open Research

#KNMarket View

The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 50 basis points. India’s foreign exchange reserves soared to an all-time high of $689.5 billion.

Fed's First Rate Cut in Four Years Sparks Market Reactions: Potential for More Cuts on the Horizon

Arabica Coffee Hits 13-Year High Amid Drought Fears

FED gave the market more than what investors asked, enough to fuel a rally?.

Bitcoin’s Next Big Move: Riding the Fed Wave to $65K?

KN Market View 2024-09-22

#KNMarketView

Main Topics

Key Events - Foreign direct investment (FDI) in China fell sharply by 31.5%. Fed Interest Rate Decision this Wednesday.

Government Bonds and Currencies - After a losing streak, the Mexican peso became the most appreciated currency of the week.

Commodities - Silver trading at its two-month high.

Stocks - China faces deflation and stock market slump.

Crypto - Ethereum’s Recovery vs. Vitalik Buterin’s ETH Sales.

Paper of the week - Trend-Following and Risk Factor Diversification in 2022 and 2023 : a Tale of Two Extremes.

KN Market View 2024-09-15

#KNMarket-View

Main Topics
Key Events - Possible strike across the Israeli economy. Employment gains in the United States were lower than the 12-month average.

Government Bonds and Currencies - Market Sentiment Shifts as Yield Curve Declines Ahead of Fed's September Meeting.

Commodities - Milk and Orange juice show an increase in price.

Stocks - Tough week for worldwide markets.

Crypto - Bitcoin Pumps and Dumps as Jobs Report Spurs Crypto Volatility

Paper of the week - Large Large Models as Financial Analysts

KN Market View 2024-09-08

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Main Topics

Key Events - The Eurozone's annual inflation rate decreased to 2.2%. The United States will announce their unemployment rate.

Government Bonds and Currencies - Market anticipates rate cuts amid U.S. yield curve shifts.

Commodities - Gasoline trading at January’s lows.

Stocks - Regional banks strike back.

Crypto -Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong announces first AI-to-AI crypto transaction.

Paper of the week - The response of consumer spending to changes in gasoline prices.

KN Market View 2024-09-01

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Main Topics

Key Events - The ECB decided to keep interest rates unchanged in July 2024.

Government Bonds and Currencies - Fed Chairman Powell clearly signals rate cut in September.

Commodities - Steel finally rebounded after trading at its lower level since 2016. Wheat trading at its four year low.

Stocks - Spain with a great WoW run. Russia is struggling with all the sanctions imposed by the G7 nations.

Crypto - Russia is set to launch two exchanges to circumvent sanction.

Paper of the week - Low Interest Rates, Market Power, and Productivity Growth.

KN Market View 2024-08-25

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Main Topics

Key Events - Brazil’s economic activity exceeded expectations, with the IBC-Br Index rising by 1.4% in June 2024.

Government Bonds and Currencies - The Australian dollar rose 1.50% as employment data exceeded expectations, its 10Y bond yield fell to 3.86%, the South African rand gained 254 bps, and the Shekel appreciated 151 bps.

Commodities - Gold Hits all time highs and Oil futures slump.

Stocks - Japanese markets rebound after the unwind of the Yen Carry Trade.

Crypto - The Dubai Court of First Instance has declared that cryptocurrency can be legally recognized as a valid form of salary payment in employment contracts.

Paper of the week - Sustainable investing in equilibrium.

KN Market View 2024-08-18

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Main Topics

Key Events - JP Morgan raised its probability for recession in the United States or the world by the end of the year from 25% to 35%.

Government Bonds and Currencies - Following a surprising interest rate cut by Banxico, Mexico's 10Y government bond yield closed this week at 9.74%. The Brazilian Real appreciated by 3.85%.

Commodities - Natural Gas rebound after the return of warmer temperatures and positive reports.

Stocks - Market sentiment in Brazil and Mexico improved following central bank suggestions of easing monetary policy.

Crypto - 1.7 billion dollars in Bitcoin leaving exchanges.

Weekly Paper Picks - Recession Signals and Business Cycle Dynamics.

KN Market View 2024-08-11

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Key Events. The United States faces an increase in its unemployment rate from 4.1% in June to 4.3% last month.

Government Bonds and Currencies. FED rate cut likely as unemployment rises. Canadian bond market hit by unemployment data and Fed rate cut expectations. Yen surges following central bank announcements.

Commodities. Oil prices continued under pressure. Precious metals recovered some ground after market sell-off.

Stocks. The Utilities sector takes this week’s victory again, showing its resilience when markets are under pressure.

Crypto. Crypto followed markets’ sell-off.

Weekly Paper Picks. Market Bubbles and Crashes.

KN Market View 2024-08-04

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Main Topics

Key Events. China loan prime rate was cut by 10 bps to 3.35%, reaching a new all-time low. Taiwanese exports rose 3.1% yoy, missing market expectations of a 12.5% growth. This week, the US will be in focus with the highly anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

Government Bonds and Currencies. Peso continues to decline as Yen strengthens, reaching a two-month high against the Dollar.

Commodities. Silver sank on worries about slack global demand. Wheat trading at its three year low.

Stocks. The Nikkei closed at its three-month low on higher rates.

Crypto. Kamala Harris aims to eradicate Bitcoin…

Weekly Paper Picks. The Three Types of Backtests.

KN Market View 2024-07-28

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Main Topics

Key Events. China GDP came at 4.7% yoy, missing market forecasts of 5.1%. This week, the focus will be on the US Q2 GDP growth rate and Global PMI.

Government Bonds and Currencies. The DXY recovers ground, despite the anticipation of rate cuts.

Commodities. Natural Gas prices have retreated from recent highs. Copper continued under pressure on China concerns demand. Lumber recovering on rising demand expectations.

Stocks. Earnings season highlights. Big losses for the tech sector.

Crypto. Donald Trump wants to crush China in the crypto field!

Weekly Paper Picks. Gen AI: too much spend, too little benefit? / The Simple Macroeconomics of AI

KN Market View 2024-07-21

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Key Events. The US inflation rate fell for a third straight month to 3% in June 2024 below forecasts of 3.1%. Next week's earnings reports: GS, BlackRock, UnitedHealth, BoA, Morgan Stanley, Charles Schwab, J&J, Netflix, and Amex.

Government Bonds and Currencies. The DXY remains under pressure, with rate cuts on the horizon.

Commodities. Soft commodities continued under pressure.

Stocks. The Mexican market finally rebounded. JPM tops revenue.

Crypto. The ECB explores blockchain for its digital euro.

Weekly Paper Picks. The Search for Crisis Alpha: Weathering the Storm Using Relative Momentum.

KN Market View 2024-07-14

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